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Struggles in San Jose: The Free Agency Problem

IMPORTANT DECISIONS LAY AHEAD FOR DOUG WILSON AND THE SAN JOSE SHARKS

The Sharks made waves last offseason, first pursuing top free agent John Tavares, and following him signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs, they went out and traded for superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson. Now, Karlsson received a monster 8-year, 11.5 million extension, leaving the Sharks with just $14 million in cap space and free agents such as Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Kevin LaBanc, Gustav Nyquist, Timo Meier, and Joonas Donskoi all needing new deals. Extensions given out to players like Logan Couture, Evander Kane, and Brent Burns needed to be given out, but it leaves the Sharks in a rough position.

If I’m Sharks GM Doug Wilson, I’m happy with what I’ve done. It’s all but official that captain Joe Pavelski won’t be a Shark anymore. It’s a sad story after all Pavelski has done for the franchise, and the fan favorite will be missed in San Jose, but it’s time to move on. The Sharks can not afford a long term, expensive deal for Pavelski, especially when they have younger options like LaBanc or Meier to lock up. There are too many players on expiring contracts that the Sharks need to get signed right now. Having Pavelski stay doesn’t make a ton of sense. Logan Couture has shown that he can be the captain after leading his team throughout the playoffs when Pavelski went down in a Game 7 against the Golden Knights. Everyone watched him point to his bench and hold up the number one. He knew he was going to lead his team back from the brink of elimination. A few minutes later, he hammered a rocket into the back of the net to tie up the game, putting the Shark Tank up for grabs. Couture would continue to be a Conn Smythe candidate for the rest of his team’s playoff run. The team could also go to Joe Thornton, who was captain of the sharks for a little while before Pavelski’s tenure, or to Brent Burns, who combines leading vocally with his stellar on-ice play. The point is, there’s a lot of options for the captaincy in San Jose, and there’s no point keeping Pavelski for his on-ice play if not for his leadership and presence in the locker room.

The Sharks are in a tough spot to work around, but they’re still one of my favorites to win the Pacific Division, along with the Calgary Flames. The Canucks and Coyotes could be some surprise teams if Vegas loses too many players because of their salary cap situation. Their defense allows them to contend against any time on any given night. Martin Jones is solid enough in net, and the Sharks have a good but not great offense. Their success over the next five years will hinge on the play of Burns and Karlsson. Any decline from one of those two would mean disaster for the team. I’d be nervous about signing Karl to such a long-term deal because of his injury history, but there weren’t really other options on the table for the Sharks. He was going to get a long term deal from one of Ottawa, Montreal, or San Jose. In order to get Karlsson, the Sharks had to sign him long-term right now. They did the right thing. Karlsson is such an elite player that he’s worth any risk of a long-term deal. If things go sour, then the Sharks are in a similar situation to the Chicago Blackhawks with less elite young talent, a weaker prospect pipeline and a worse version of a Brent Seabrook contract. The risk is high for the Sharks, but a potential Stanley Cup is an even higher reward.

Some other thoughts:

I really like Timo Meier’s game. He’s a workhorse on the power play and as a power forward isn’t afraid to take the puck to the net. If I was another teams GM and the Sharks were slow on resigning him as opposed to their other free agents, I’d consider using an offer sheet on him, especially if I knew the Sharks couldn’t get out of their cap situation to find room for him. There would be compensation, but nothing like a Mitch Marner caliber player would fetch. Meier’s ceiling is pretty high and he’s worth the sacrifice.

After seemingly wanting to head to Chicago in free agency, the Blackhawks are reportedly in on Anders Lee and out on Joe Pavelski. Pavelski is looking now to sign with one of Dallas or Tampa Bay. Dallas seems like the most likely choice because of Tampa’s low cap space and need to sign Brayden Point to a new deal.


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